By The Numbers: Why Schlotterbeck Outperforms Upamecano and Van Hecke Is Liverpool’s Smartest January Option
Liverpool’s Centre-Back Dilemma - January is Coming, the Reds Must Act
It might be October, but the club has to be thinking about January already. Right now, we are running with three senior centre-backs. Any deeper into multiple competitions and you are staring down the barrel of seeing Wataru Endo at centre-half. That’s not criticism of Endo, but rather a warning sign of how thin we are. The last time Liverpool gambled with centre-back depth, it cost us the league.
This cannot happen again.
So, the question is simple. Who is realistic in January, who makes sense for the summer, and who matches the profile that Arne Slot clearly wants?
We have three names repeatedly linked. Dayot Upamecano, Nico Schlotterbeck and Jan Paul van Hecke. I have watched the footage, reviewed the data, and here is what I believe.
Upamecano: Looks Good Until You Dig Deeper
Dayot Upamecano’s name carries weight. He has played at the top level, has 34 caps for France and starts for Bayern Munich regularly. His athletic profile is solid. A top speed of 34 km/h and 77 sprints already this season highlight his mobility. On the ball, there is a lot to like. Ninety-fourth percentile for progressive passing, 99th for pass attempts and 93 percent pass completion. He is a punch passer too, able to fire balls into the front line and bypass midfield. As the below threat map shows from a recent game, he creates a good % of his threat from just inside the opposition half, indicating how he can positively influence a team’s attacking play.
He can step up and intercept, and he’s comfortable defending in transition. He does a lot of what Arne Slot asks for in terms of build-up and proactive defending. However, the concerns are significant.
His aerial win rate this season is 61.5 percent. That is Gomez and Quansah territory, which does not help, for a side that already struggles with set-pieces and long balls, this is not what you want to be bringing in. Slot himself has noted that Liverpool are facing more long balls than ever, and if your centre-back wins only six out of ten headers, you have a problem.