Hugo Ekitike’s Numbers Suggest Untapped Potential

Assessing Ekitike's strengths, weaknesses and potential fit

Hugo Ekitike: A Project Forward with Big Potential

When I look at Hugo Ekitike, I see a forward who splits opinion. Some fans hear the price tag, see the underperformance in front of goal, and worry. Others, including myself, dig into the data and recognise a player with serious upside. This isn’t just about numbers, though the numbers help, it’s about profile, potential, and what he could become under the right manager at the right club. If Liverpool push this deal over the line, I believe Arne Slot might have the tools to bring that out of him.

Why Ekitike Stands Out in the Data

Hugo Ekitike finished the 2024/25 season with 115 shots in the Bundesliga, more than any other player in the league, including Harry Kane. That tells you something straight away: he gets into a shooting opportunity and is not afraid to take responsibility. His shot volume is elite, sitting in the 94th percentile for shots per 90 and 96th for non-penalty xG. He averaged 3.74 shots per 90 and played over 2,500 Bundesliga minutes. This is a player who is always involved, always active, always looking to make something happen.

Now, it’s true that he underperformed his xG in the league by a full eight goals, 15 goals from an xG of 23.09. That’s a concern, no question, but it’s not the full picture. His expected assists (xA) were 7.5, and he registered eight, showing he's spot on when it comes to creative output. His threat metric, the stat that captures how involved he is in the buildup to a goal or chance, is 0.07. For context, that’s 0.01 below Alexander Isak, and above every Liverpool number nine from last season, Jota 0.05xT and Nùñez 0.03xT.

His Strengths: Positions, Speed and Link-Up Play

Ekitike likes to operate from the left half-space into the box, but can drift centrally when needed, as you can see below from a recent game, he covers not only the LHS but also Zone 14, a little in RHS and around the PK spot.

As seen below from a recent game, around 25% of his on-ball threat comes from the left HS, which opens up interesting dynamics depending on who plays around him. He’s right-foot dominant, doesn’t head the ball much only 14 headers in 117 attempts last season. He can be effective when receiving cutbacks into the PK box, taking 72 of those goal attempts from the area between the 6 yard box and the edge of the PK box. His finishing noticeably improves inside six yards, he’s scored, 8 goals from 9.4 xG.

Where he still needs to improve is his finishing from wider angles or further out inside the box. Those areas, is where he lets himself down, (a combined 6.5 xG underperformance) but under Slot, who already showed with Luis Diaz last season that he can restrict low-percentage shooting and focus on higher-value areas. I think with Slot’s coaching Ekitike’s shot selection can be tightened up significantly.

One other point: he’s not slow. Far from it. Ekitike clocked a top speed of 35.53 km/h last season as per the Bundesliga official website, which puts him in the “rapid” category, just a notch below the very quickest players like Jeremie Frimpong. That kind of pace, especially in transitions, is going to be valuable in how Slot wants to stretch teams and attack the spaces behind.

What He Needs to Work On

Off the ball, there’s no hiding it: he’s not the finished article. Interceptions are decent for a forward, but tackles and blocks aren’t where they need to be. His defensive output sits around the 50th percentile or lower in most categories. He’s not the kind of player who’s going to press with the intensity of someone like Diaz or Firmino in their prime. The image below from a recent game, shows his off ball zones, and the limits with this part of this game so far.

But you can work on that, Slot is known as a development coach, and if Ekitike comes in, it’s likely with the understanding that he’s a project. He’s only 23, with a clean injury record, just one missed game last season and the same in 23/24 season, and low wages compared to the likes of Isak. He’s also a team player. His passing network involvement shows he links up well, doesn’t isolate himself up top, and connects with the midfield consistently.

He’s not a ghost in the final third, he’s involved, as the image above shows, from a recent game, which indicates just passes made in the attacking half, he is has thick lines linked to him from all players. The darkness of the lines indicates the threat associated with the pass network. That’s critical. You can’t build a team around a centre forward who goes missing. With Ekitike, we see from the data that he wants the ball, shows for it, and contributes meaningfully in possession.

Would I Take Him at Liverpool?

Yes, I would, with a couple of caveats, if the plan is to make Ekitike the lead striker from day one, it’s a gamble. He needs refinement, he needs time. But if he’s part of a broader plan, say, part of a two-pronged forward plan alongside someone like Isak, then it makes more sense to me, putting aside the obvious financial limitations of that potential option. The other thing to consider is the league tax, which indicates a 15% decline in stats when moving from the Buli to the EPL.

There’s a gap between his raw output and his potential, but the ingredients are there. He’s fast, aggressive, plays in dangerous areas, creates chances, and is beginning to sharpen up in the key scoring zones. He isn’t the finished product, but he might be the right project, as he enters his peak years.

And if we’re talking about squad building, this is how you do it. Get the player in at 23, on a six-year deal, on reasonable wages, and with a skillset that fits how your manager wants to play. He’s not a big headline signing even at circa £70m, but he might be a smart one and with Liverpool still allegedly in the hunt for Isak, there’s every reason to believe this could be the start of something significant.

We’ll look at Isak in full detail tomorrow. That’s a different conversation, and it deserves its own piece. But for now, Hugo Ekitike appears to be the player the data department have earmarked for a reason. Similar profile, similar movement, just needing a bit more sharpness in front of goal, he would need time to adjust physically to the EPL but If we can give him that platform, we might find ourselves with a seriously effective forward on our hands.