Liverpool and Viktor Gyökeres: A Data-Led Transfer Worth Watching

Is Gyökeres the Right Striker for Arne Slot’s Liverpool Setup?

Liverpool’s post-Klopp era under Arne Slot promises to be tactically nuanced, pressing-oriented and reliant on positional intelligence. As the club assesses its forward line ahead of the 2025–26 season, Viktor Gyökeres has emerged as a credible transfer link. Currently at Sporting CP, the Swedish striker is a prolific goalscorer and a statistically compelling option.

I discussed Gyökeres in depth on the recent Transfer Market Metrics podcast. Having reflected further on his data, this piece expands my analysis by examining what he truly offers Liverpool, particularly from a tactical and statistical perspective.

Intelligent Movement and Positional Discipline

Positionally, Gyökeres fits a profile Liverpool have often lacked since Roberto Firmino's prime years. He receives the ball consistently in Zone 14, looking to link play from deep central areas. His Expected Possession Value (EPV) map from the match against Vitória de Guimarães shows that 43 percent of his threat is generated in Zone 14, with a further 32 percent in the slightly deeper central region.

This is a tactical dream for a team like Liverpool. Gyökeres can connect with the 8s, receive passes from the left winger, and operate in areas destabilising opposition structures. He offers combination play without crowding the wings or dropping too deep, and most crucially, he transitions into a pure penalty-box striker once the play advances.

This dual-function profile, dropping in to facilitate possession and advancing to finish, makes him such a tempting option. He does not try to do everything; he does the things that matter in the places where they matter most.

Elite Goal Output and Efficiency

On paper, Gyökeres is unignorable. In the 2024 to 2025 Primeira Liga season, he scored 39 goals in 33 matches, with an additional 6 goals in 8 Champions League appearances. His underlying numbers support this clinical output, with 30.8 xG in the league and a non-penalty xG of 21.4, which is particularly impressive given how centralised and efficient his shot selection is. Set-pieces do not pad his stats, as his xG comes mainly through regular play or fast breaks.

What is most striking is where Gyökeres takes his shots. In a recent match analysed for the podcast, all six of his shots were inside the penalty area, and five were on target. His xG per shot was 0.27, a figure above the big-chance benchmark. As the shot map shows, four out of his six shots came between the posts, demonstrating intelligence and discipline in shot selection. Even more notably, he added 30 percent to the value of his shots through post-shot xG, reflecting excellent shot execution.

This is not a forward who wastes possession on speculative efforts. Instead, Gyökeres operates like a specialist, present at the right time, in the right place, and with the right finish.

Off-Ball Work, Central and Committed

Although not known for relentless pressing in the same way as Diogo Jota or Darwin Núñez, Gyökeres can press with intelligence. His defensive actions heat map shows most of his work centrally, particularly in and around Zone 14. This is valuable because it disrupts the opposition’s deepest midfielder, often the orchestrator, without requiring the team to overstretch itself.

He also presses modestly in the half-spaces, offering enough engagement to support a pressing system with tactical variations to suit Liverpool’s varied off-ball approach. While he is not a pure disruptor, he does not switch off when the ball is lost and contributes to the team’s defensive structure.

In Arne Slot’s system, which is expected to balance high pressing with possession retention, Gyökeres would not need to lead the press but function within it. His numbers suggest he is more than capable of doing so, but he would need some coaching to align with the Liverpool system.

Passing Links and Team Dynamics

Data from Sporting’s pass networks from a recent game shows Gyökeres is most frequently connected with the left winger, though he also takes in passes from both 8s. This is promising in the context of Liverpool’s attacking shape, particularly with Dominik Szoboszlai or Alexis Mac Allister operating as advanced eights.

He is not a high-volume passer, averaging 22.76 passes per 90 minutes, but his involvement is purposeful. His pass completion rate of 71.4 percent may seem low, but given his central role under pressure and frequent involvement in transition, it is within acceptable bounds. More importantly, his progressive passes were received at 10.75 per 90, ranking in the 99th percentile, which tells the real story. Gyökeres is always where he needs to be, ready to receive and contribute.

Conclusion: Worth the Gamble?

While Gyökeres is not without risks, including his age, 27, his modest pressing profile, and the likely £60 to £70 million fee, he is arguably one of Europe's most efficient penalty-box strikers.

There is a clear case for Liverpool to consider him as part of their forward rotation, particularly if Slot’s system prioritises structured pressing, a central attacking presence, and efficient finishing. Gyökeres does not offer promise; he offers output, and in a team already overflowing with creative providers, that may be exactly what Liverpool need. However due to his age profile, and the need to refine his off ball contributions, it’s an option I hope is low down on the priority list.