Im sure there will be more spectacular Liverpool victories this season. There will be afternoons when the football flows more freely, when chances arrive in waves and when the final scoreline provides a more obvious reflection of territorial dominance.
I am not sure there will be many away wins that tell us quite as much about where Andoni Iraola is trying to take this Liverpool side.
Liverpool’s 2-0 Premier League victory at Ipswich was built on something we have not seen often enough in recent times: control of the game through the scoreboard. Alexander Isak struck twice early, Liverpool established their position, and from there the requirements of the match changed completely.
That matters when looking at the statistics, because a superficial reading produces a slightly peculiar conclusion. Ipswich finished with more shots and even edged the expected goals count, 0.75 to Liverpool’s 0.69.
Watch the match, examine where those attempts came from and consider what Liverpool were being asked to do after taking the lead, and a rather different picture emerges. The performance was one of efficiency, tactical discipline and, most encouragingly, an understanding of how to manage a Premier League away game once Liverpool had earned the advantage.
Isak Changes Liverpool’s Relationship With Chances
Isak’s influence stretches considerably further than the two goals, although those two goals remain the obvious starting point.
Liverpool produced only 10 shots compared with Ipswich’s 14. Yet seven of Liverpool’s efforts hit the target, compared with five from Ipswich. That means 70% of Liverpool’s attempts were on target, while Ipswich managed roughly 36%.
That is a huge difference in shot execution.
More revealingly, FotMob recorded Liverpool’s expected goals on target at 1.94, compared with just 0.76 for Ipswich.
Liverpool’s ordinary xG was only 0.69.
That gap between xG and xGOT is fascinating. Expected goals measures the likelihood of a chance being scored before considering the eventual placement of the shot. Expected goals on target evaluates what happens once the player has actually struck it.
Isak elevated Liverpool’s chances through the quality of his finishing.
Neither side registered a FotMob “big chance”. Liverpool still scored twice.
That is precisely why an elite finisher can change the mathematics of a football match. A striker who repeatedly requires a goalkeeper to deal with well placed, powerful attempts can turn apparently modest opportunities into goals.
