Liverpool Striker Shortlist Ranked Using Key Stats and Performance Data

Osimhen, Isak and Ekitike: Liverpool’s Striker Targets Analysed

The striker conversation at Liverpool is finally front and centre. After a summer full of arrivals and reshuffles, the focus now has to be on who replaces Darwin Nunez, a player who just hasn’t delivered consistently. The names doing the rounds are Hugo Ekitike, Victor Osimhen and Alexander Isak. Each brings something unique to the table, and I’ve done the data work to try and separate them.

This isn’t about feelings or favourites. It’s about performance, availability, cost and fit. Each of these strikers has a red flag or two. No perfect option exists. What matters is understanding the total package and which direction the club wants to go.

Hugo Ekitike: Exciting Prospect, But Not Yet There

I’ve got Ekitike in third, but I’ll be clear, this isn’t about potential, it’s about readiness. He’s a young forward, and at 22, his numbers are promising. Defensively, he’s limited, but in terms of progressive carries at 96th percentile, touches in the penalty area at 94th, and progressive passes received, he stands out. He's heavily involved in attacking play, with shots in the 93rd percentile and solid assist numbers.

But there's a major issue. He’s finished eight goals under his xG over the season, scoring 15 when he should’ve had 23. That’s a clear red flag. Add to that a relatively low off-ball involvement, with next to no defensive shape in the off ball zone map shown below, and there’s work to be done. If you need someone to convert high-value chances created by the likes of Florian Wirtz or Mohamed Salah, that inefficiency is a problem.

Injury-wise, he’s strong. Fourteen games missed in his first top-level season, but just one in each of the last two. That gives him the best record of the three. Financially, he’d cost around £70 million with reported wages at £120,000 per week, a cheaper wage structure than the others.

The real question is this. Can Liverpool afford to invest that much in a project? With Van Dijk and Salah both signed to huge deals and just two years left at the top, the answer, at least for me, is no. He may make more sense in a year or two if others are unavailable or if his output levels out. But right now, Ekitike doesn’t give us what we need.

Victor Osimhen: Win-Now Output With Injury Risks

There’s no denying Osimhen's ability in front of goal. His non-penalty goals are in the 95th percentile, his shot volume is massive, over seven per game, and he plays where we need a forward to play, in the box. Touches in the penalty area come in at the 99th percentile. He’s physical, strong in the air at 91st percentile in aerial duels, and brings qualities that would diversify Liverpool’s attack.

But his passing is minimal, just 68 percent completion, and off the ball, he’s not significantly better than Ekitike. In fact, his contribution to threat creation is under 2 percent of team actions in the examples we looked at, which is very low.

The main concern is injury history. His average over the last three seasons is 11 games missed. Last season he missed seven, and previous seasons saw him out for 15 and 11 games respectively. And worryingly, many are muscular, hamstrings and groins. These are not contact injuries, which suggests a pattern.

He’s also expensive. Even with a year left on his Napoli deal, he’d likely cost around £60 million, and his wage demands are high. Reports suggest around £300,000 per week, or £16 million annually. That’s a massive commitment.

Still, he’s reliable when on the pitch. His xG and xA tracking are consistent, he hits what he should hit. In Napoli’s 2022-23 title season, he hit over 30 goals in all competitions. He added another 26 last season while on loan in Turkey, including six in the Europa League. His shot map from a recent game shows, he operates best in the box and takes his shots in the box with the majority between the posts and one of the reasons his goals are inline with his xG.

He’s a win-now option, and in a team built around instant impact, that counts. If the club decide the wage structure can stretch, Osimhen could make sense. But the injury profile and cost raise legitimate concerns.

Alexander Isak: Best Balance of Performance, Value and Fit

Alexander Isak is my number one. He offers Premier League experience, he’s 25 going on 26, and he’s hitting his peak. He’s been consistently productive in England with no need to adjust to a new league. His attacking stats are strong, non-penalty goals in the 88th percentile, shot-creating actions at 84, and good involvement across the board. He averages over three shots per 90 and three shot-creating actions, ideal numbers. Isak’s shot map below, from a recent game, shows he takes his shots in the box, and like Osimhen the majority are central.

His output over three seasons tells its own story. In 2022-23, he scored 21 goals from 22 xG and assisted three from three xA, bang on. In 2023 to 2024, he scored 23 from 22 xG and assisted six from five xA, again, very consistent. You know what you’re getting. Technically, he’s sound. Passing accuracy is decent at 82%. He’s involved in link-up play, and he works the right half-space well, complementing our left-sided threats, as seen in the below threat (EPV) heat map.

He’s missed games, with 13 per season on average, which is slightly worse than Osimhen. But the trend is improving, 18 missed in his first season, then 12, and just nine last season. Many of those were in Newcastle’s first Champions League campaign, when the whole squad was stretched. His injuries are a mix: a toe break, hamstrings, and groins, but Liverpool’s medical team might feel confident they can manage that down.

In terms of price, Isak is the most expensive. We’re hearing Newcastle want between £120m and £130m. However, his wages are lower than Osimhen’s, at £220,000 a week, or £ 11.4m annually. It’s still high, but more manageable.

He doesn’t go to AFCON either. That’s a consideration when you might lose Salah and Osimhen in January. Isak is available throughout. That continuity matters, especially with Arne Slot trying to build tactical consistency.

Final Verdict

While Ekitike is a good player and might offer long-term upside, that comes with a lot of unknowns, which Liverpool can’t afford given the stage this team is at. Osimhen would score goals, no doubt, but the financial and physical risks are much higher.

However if Liverpool are focused on winning now and building for the future, Alexander Isak gives you both. He’s Premier League proven, statistically reliable in terms of xG conversion and tactically flexible. His injury record is moving in the right direction and the wage demand, while high, is not prohibitive.

For me, it’s Isak gold, Osimhen silver, Ekitike bronze. Let’s see what unfolds at the AXA in the coming weeks.