Liverpool vs Burnley: When the Numbers Say Win and the Scoreline Says Otherwise
Expected goals, tactical restraint and a growing problem in decisive moments
Liverpool 1 Burnley 1: Possession Without Punishment Leaves Anfield Asking Questions
Liverpool walked away from Anfield with a draw that felt heavier than the scoreline suggested. On paper, this was domination. In reality, it was another Premier League afternoon where overwhelming control failed to translate into decisive damage. Against Burnley, a side struggling across almost every measurable metric this season, Liverpool created the sort of statistical profile that should end games early. Instead, they allowed uncertainty, hesitation and poor game management to keep the door open.
This was not about effort or intent. It was about execution, clarity and ruthlessness. When a team posts 73% possession, generates 3.18 expected goals, attempts 32 shots and completes 635 passes at 87% accuracy, there should be no debate at full time. Yet Liverpool found themselves leaving points on the pitch again, reinforcing a growing concern about how dominance is being converted, or not converted, into wins.
Numbers That Should Have Buried Burnley
The raw numbers from this match are staggering when viewed in isolation. Liverpool recorded 32 shots to Burnley’s seven, with 20 of those efforts coming from inside the penalty area. Burnley managed just one shot on target across the entire game. Liverpool’s expected goals of 3.18 dwarfed Burnley’s 0.40, and the non penalty xG gap was even more damning.
This was not a game defined by low quality shooting or hopeful long range efforts. Liverpool consistently got into dangerous areas. They touched the ball 78 times inside Burnley’s box compared to Burnley’s 15. They forced blocks, created shooting lanes and repeatedly arrived in promising positions between the posts.
