There are certain games where the numbers reinforce what you already suspect. Then there are games where they reveal something more interesting.
Liverpool against Manchester City on Sunday falls firmly into the second category.
I sat down with Michael Reid, Football Data Editor at OptaJoe, for our Numbers Don’t Lie podcast, and the deeper we went into this game, the more fascinating it became. There are individual battles everywhere, Alexander Isak against Erling Haaland, Jérémy Jacquet and Virgil van Dijk against Marc Guéhi and Rúben Dias, Alexis Mac Allister against Elliot Anderson, plus Florian Wirtz and Rayan Cherki lurking behind it all.
There is also a wider tactical issue which I think could decide the game. Liverpool and City are both vulnerable when opponents attack them quickly.
That matters because it potentially plays directly into what Andoni Iraola wants Liverpool to become.
Isak and Haaland Give This Game Its Obvious Shootout
Let’s start with the frightening numbers.
Haaland has five Premier League goals from five starts and Isak has four from five. Haaland is scoring at exactly 1.00 goals per 90, with Isak at 0.87. He is taking four shots per 90 compared with Isak’s 3.3, while his expected goals figure sits at 0.89 per 90 against Isak’s 0.77.
That Isak number is still obscene.
Michael made the point that maintaining 0.77 non penalty xG per 90 across an entire season is probably unrealistic because essentially only Haaland has operated at that sort of level. If Isak eventually settles somewhere around 0.6 to 0.7, Liverpool should still be extremely happy.
There are even areas where Isak leads Haaland. His shot conversion rate is 26.7% compared with Haaland’s 25%, while Isak has won 48.1% of his duels against Haaland’s 42.9%.
The comparison itself tells you how well Isak has started. We are putting him alongside the player I regard as the best centre forward in world football and it does not feel ridiculous.
The challenge is keeping Haaland away from opportunities. Watching his goals, what strikes me repeatedly is his ability to peel towards the back post. That makes Liverpool’s defensive personnel particularly important.
I would rather have Ronald Araújo dealing with Haaland at that back post than Jeremie Frimpong. If Haaland moves towards the other side, Van Dijk comes into the equation. Alisson will also have to judge when he can claim crosses and when he needs to position himself for the finish.
Liverpool at least enter that battle with genuine strength at centre back.
Jacquet has been outstanding. He leads this comparison for tackles at 2.4 per 90, interceptions at 1.7, possession won at 4.5 and duels won at 6.3. His duel success stands at 76.3%, while his aerial success is 76.9%.
For a 21 year old adapting to the Premier League, those are astonishing numbers.
Van Dijk remains formidable too, winning 74.1% of his duels and 71.4 per cent aerially.
Guéhi’s numbers deserve respect. He is winning 75.8% of his duels and 76.5 per cent aerially, figures considerably higher than those we were accustomed to seeing from him at Crystal Palace.
Dias sees plenty of the ball, 96 touches and 88.2 passes per 90, although his 15 line breaking passes per 90 trail Guéhi’s 20.6 and both Liverpool centre backs.
We do have to remember that defensive statistics are partly dictated by how much defending a team has to do. Still, when Jacquet and Van Dijk have been asked questions this season, they have answered them.
City will provide the biggest examination yet.
Transition Numbers Give Liverpool a Route Into City
This is where the game becomes especially interesting.
Liverpool and Manchester City are the top two Premier League teams for the percentage of opponents’ phases which become progressive. Liverpool are at 19.6% and City at 16.9%.
In simple terms, opponents are finding opportunities to attack both teams quickly.
City have also allowed seven opposition progressive phases to develop into overloads, where the attacking team has more attackers than defenders. Liverpool have allowed five.
That immediately made me think about Iraola.
We see him on the touchline demanding that Liverpool go forward. The idea is to attack before the opposition can become organised. Liverpool’s numbers for progressing up the pitch quickly have already improved from last season.
The first thought when Mac Allister or Dominik Szoboszlai receives possession increasingly needs to be, where are the forwards and can we play through the lines immediately?
City’s vulnerability suggests Liverpool should be aggressive with that approach on Sunday.
Sunderland provided the blueprint.
They lost 5-3 at the Etihad, yet recorded 3.57 xG compared with City’s 2.82. Sunderland had 17 shots to City’s 16 and nine efforts on target compared with City’s six. Their 3.57 xG was their joint second highest figure against City in Opta’s records, and it came without penalties.
Brian Brobbey scored a hat trick.
That tells Liverpool something. City can be hurt. Sunderland created overloads, attacked space and got bodies into dangerous positions.
Bradley Barcola and Victor Muñoz could therefore become extremely important. With Cody Gakpo unavailable, their pace can still give Liverpool the ability to attack those spaces quickly.
I would expect Iraola and his staff to have studied Sunderland repeatedly.
The frustration is that Liverpool have had this enormous international break when you would ideally want Iraola working with his players on the training ground. He may only have two or three days with the full group before Sunday.
Still, the route is there.
Mac Allister Faces a Huge Elliot Anderson Test
If transitions could decide the match, somebody has to start them.
That brings us to midfield.
Elliot Anderson’s numbers are extraordinary. I thought City had bought a quality midfielder. Looking at the data now, there is little point underselling what he has become.
Anderson is averaging 116.5 touches and 95.6 passes per 90. Mac Allister is at 69.8 touches and 53.2 passes.
Anderson produces 22.8 line breaking passes per 90 compared with Mac Allister’s 16.7, while he also leads for line breaking passes in the final third, 9.1 to 7.3.
There is important context, though.
Roughly 31% of Mac Allister’s passes are line breaking, compared with around 23% for Anderson. Anderson plays far more passes overall, while a greater proportion of Mac Allister’s distribution is trying to break lines.
That could be crucial.
Anderson also wins 60.7% of his duels, compared with Mac Allister’s 50 per cent. He has 7.4 duel wins per 90, eight interceptions in five appearances and 23 possession wins.
I said on the podcast that those numbers are outrageous.
What impressed Michael about Anderson at Nottingham Forest was that he could produce defensive numbers in a side averaging less than 50% possession. Put him into a City team controlling considerably more of the ball and he can suddenly play nearly 100 passes per 90.
He can carry, pass, tackle and win duels.
I would never put him at Steven Gerrard’s level, and Michael was very clear about that too, but there is a similarity in the sense of having no obvious weakness. Anderson can operate as a defensive midfielder or more of a box to box player.
Liverpool will also need Szoboszlai’s running power. Whatever debate exists about his precise position, Iraola clearly values him. He has started every Premier League game under him.
This feels like one of those matches where Iraola’s line about his players needing to “suffer” becomes relevant. Szoboszlai may have to run his legs off.
Wirtz, Cherki and One Match That Could Change Liverpool’s Season
Remarkably, we have reached this far without properly discussing Florian Wirtz or Rayan Cherki.
That says everything about the talent involved.
I have watched Wirtz during the internationals and one thing pleased me enormously, he has started dribbling again. He is making things happen.
Cherki presents another enormous problem. Michael’s point was that his weakness comes without the ball. That creates an opportunity for Liverpool. If he does not follow runners, Szoboszlai has to exploit it.
When Cherki receives possession, everything changes.
Liverpool cannot give him 20 yards of space because he has the ability to find Haaland. That places responsibility on Mac Allister whenever Szoboszlai moves forward.
Wirtz and Cherki are wonderful players. They could be the two flair players, beyond the two centre forwards, who illuminate this game.
Ultimately, though, I keep coming back to transitions.
Can Liverpool win possession and play forward before City recover? Can Mac Allister break the first line? Can Szoboszlai exploit the space? Can Barcola or Muñoz turn an attack into an overload? Can Isak finish it?
At the opposite end, can Jacquet and Van Dijk prevent exactly the same thing happening to Liverpool?
Sunday also carries real significance for Iraola. Liverpool have won only two of their opening five league games. Beat City and we can finish the weekend no more than three points from the top. Lose and the gap to City becomes at least six.
I am not calling anything a six pointer this early.
I do think this is the sort of match that can change how a start to a season feels.
Liverpool have kept three consecutive clean sheets. City have enormous attacking quality. Isak is producing elite numbers. Haaland remains the gold standard. Anderson has started the season spectacularly. Jacquet has produced numbers which look remarkable for a 21 year old.
There are battles everywhere.
For me, the biggest question is whether Liverpool can turn City’s transition weakness into chances before City do precisely the same thing to us.
Get that right, and Anfield might have quite a Sunday.
I had given up but you have given me hope