Liverpool’s Defensive Plan Explained: Leoni Signed, Guehi Targeted

Data-Led Decisions in Liverpool’s Defensive Planning

It is not always the most obvious names that tell the most interesting stories. When we started to look at the profiles of potential centre-back recruits for Liverpool, there were already familiar figures in the mix. Marc Guehi has been discussed extensively, his Premier League minutes and England caps making him an established quantity. But alongside him, the club has now moved for Giovani Leoni, an 18-year-old with limited senior experience, and that demands closer examination.

Both profiles serve a clear function. One offers development and potential, the other represents short-term reliability. My role in this is to examine the data and determine whether those impressions hold up under scrutiny. As ever, I prefer to begin with the evidence.

1,200 Minutes, 63%, and the Weight of Potential

Giovani Leoni has played roughly 1,200 minutes of senior football in Serie A. That in itself is a relatively small sample, and it is worth noting that these are league minutes only. From a load management point of view, you would expect a player of his age to be able to increase that by 20 to 25% without difficulty, pushing into the range of 1,500 to 1,800 minutes. The key question is what happens during those minutes.

The answer, in short, is promising. Across the matches he has played, Leoni has a positive impact on the teams xG, increasing it by 0.33 on average when he plays. That is particularly notable given Parma’s position in the table. They finished 16th, and were rarely in control of possession. That context is significant, especially when assessing pass completion and progressive play, which I will come onto later.

The defensive metrics provide more clarity. His aerial duel win rate of 63% places him just below Konaté and Van Dijk. The data also places him in the 77th percentile for blocks, and high for interceptions, though lower on tackles, which we prefer. Interceptions suggest anticipation and reading of the game. Tackles are reactive. He is, in that regard, on the right side of the line. As his profile from a recent game, below shows, he is performed at the positional average for all metric's including, duels, passing and aerials.

He is not, at this stage, a carrier of the ball. That is not a flaw, just a trait. His progressive carries are low, but he ranks highly, at the 93rd percentile, in tackling during take on duels, and in take-on success when required. What that suggests is not that he breaks lines, but that he does not lose duels. That distinction matters.