Numbers reveal the truth behind Liverpool’s shock loss to Nottingham Forest

Heatmaps and xT metrics underline key weaknesses on the flanks

Liverpool slipped to a three-goal defeat at home to nineteenth-placed Nottingham Forest. Even written down, it still jars. On paper, this stretch of fixtures up to the visit to the Emirates looked favourable for Arne Slot’s side. Supporters, and probably the players and coaches too, had reason for optimism.

Based on the underlying numbers, the scoreline felt harsh. People often cling to the final result and draw firm conclusions, whether they watched the match or not. Yet the statistical profile of this Premier League meeting painted a very different story. Liverpool outshot Forest, created more inside the penalty area, completed far more passes in deep zones and enjoyed far more touches in dangerous positions. This was not a match that suggested a three-goal defeat.

Goals arrive in odd moments, and sometimes those moments cluster. Liverpool have found themselves a goal down far too often this season. Finishing is a skill, but it also involves streaks of randomness, especially when we look at repeated patterns across opponents. This has worked in Forest’s favour and against Liverpool. Rival sides are proving clinical, while Liverpool struggle to convert chances at the other end, even though the quality of the two sets of shots is not meaningfully different. The average shot quality difference stands at plus 0.01 in Liverpool’s favour.