Outplayed, outshot, out, Liverpool fall to Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup
Visitors fire 15 shots and 1.45 xG, hosts muster one effort on goal and no big chances
Selection, structure and a night where the figures did the talking
Arne Slot’s selection was logical in context. With Aston Villa and Real Madrid looming, and with injuries biting, the head coach used the Carabao Cup tie as both a learning exercise and a stress test for his 5-2-3 structure. What unfolded was a statistical snapshot of a side that can dominate possession yet lack incision, a side that still looks uncertain when energy fades and opponents play through the first press.
Liverpool had control early on. The press was man-to-man, the shape mirrored Crystal Palace’s, and for twenty minutes the Reds looked lively. Yet football is about what happens after the first half hour, not before it. When fatigue crept in, partnerships that had never played together began to fray, and Oliver Glasner’s Palace took command with calm, direct football.
The numbers tell the story. Liverpool held 59% of possession to Palace’s 41%, completed 476 passes at 84% accuracy, and yet managed just 8 shots. Palace fired 15. Only one of Liverpool’s efforts was on target, compared to nine for the visitors. The Reds committed fewer fouls and won more aerial duels, but none of it mattered when the cutting edge deserted them. Possession without penetration, passes without product… that was the theme of the night.
Expected goals reveal the gap in quality
Expected goals give the bluntest verdict. Liverpool’s 0.45 xG came entirely from open play. Crystal Palace’s 1.45 xG, with 1.41 from open play, underlines how much more efficient they were. Even more telling, Palace’s xG on target was 3.53 to Liverpool’s 0.19. That gap sums up a match where the visitors created chances that truly threatened the goalkeeper, while Liverpool rarely looked close to scoring.
Three big chances for Palace, none for Liverpool. That alone is a damning figure. A total of ten Palace shots came from inside Liverpool’s penalty area. For all the talk of tactical experimentation, this was a side that could not land a convincing blow in the final third. The front three looked disconnected, producing only two successful dribbles and one effort on target between them.
The man-to-man pressing worked early because the energy was there. Once it dropped, Liverpool no longer had the communication or familiarity to adjust into zonal moments. Palace’s attacking trio rotated constantly, one stretched, one dropped, one filled the space and it broke Liverpool’s shape time and again. The longer it went, the more the structure bent and the midfield faded.
Slot’s post-match reflection that this was the “strongest second string” available holds weight. Injuries limited the bench options and forced a reliance on youth. Yet the numbers show this was not simply a young side overwhelmed; it was a senior core that could not turn ball dominance into danger.
Duels, fatigue and tactical lessons
Duels tell a similar story. Liverpool won 36 to Palace’s 38. Close on paper, but energy and coordination made the difference. Ground duels were near even at 27 to 31, aerials 9 to 7 in Liverpool’s favour, yet Palace won the moments that mattered. As soon as the tempo dropped, the visitors’ movement exploited every loose metre.
Liverpool’s 5-2-3 offered some control in buildup, but it exposed a few truths. Without a dominant physical midfielder to screen transitions, and without a forward who occupies the penalty spot, the system can look sterile. Alexis Mac Allister showed flashes, but faded as the match wore on. Joe Gomez and Wataru Endo both struggled to hold the defensive line under late pressure. Even Andy Robertson, full of spirit, looked short of the burst that once defined him.
Crystal Palace, by contrast, were decisive. Their front three produced constant threat, and the goals came from confidence and repetition. The first two finishes, both clean and clinical, came at the exact moment Liverpool’s intensity vanished. By then, the tie was done.
The defeat exposes how dependent Liverpool’s tactical balance remains on rhythm and athleticism. When those fade, the gaps between units widen. Palace did not outplay Liverpool technically, they simply maintained shape and exploited transitions. It was a Premier League standard away performance, built on belief and execution.
What Liverpool must take from this Carabao Cup exit
The Carabao Cup exit stings, but the data provides valuable insight. The 5-2-3 can be a viable option if the correct profiles are in place. To make it work, Liverpool need one midfielder with power and legs to anchor the half spaces, and a front line that consistently stretches defences. Too often the ball arrived in advanced areas only for Palace to regroup untroubled.
This match also highlighted Liverpool’s lack of depth in attacking options. Injuries forced a reshuffle, but the drop-off in tempo and physicality was stark. Slot’s previous success relied on wide runners capable of winning one-on-one duels and recovering to press immediately. At Anfield on this night, those traits were missing.
Recruitment will inevitably be discussed, yet immediate improvement can still come from clearer attacking partnerships. Combinations must be repeated until instinctive, winger and full-back rotations, central midfielder dropping to draw out a defender, another driving beyond. Palace’s front line showed how simple movement can dismantle even experienced defenders.
The crowd saw the possession, but never felt the pressure build. One shot on target across ninety minutes says everything about where this match was lost. Palace landed their punches, Liverpool shadowboxed.
Final thoughts
This was not about effort or commitment. It was about levels. Liverpool’s 59% possession produced 0.45 xG. Crystal Palace’s 41% produced 1.45. Nine shots on target to one. Three big chances to none. These are not marginal details, they are decisive truths.
Liverpool’s Carabao Cup campaign ends not with a shock, but with a sobering reminder that control of the ball means little without conviction in the final third. Slot’s side will learn from this, but the lesson must translate fast. The Premier League and Europe will not forgive this level of bluntness.