Passing volume without penetration costs Liverpool again
Statistical Analysis of Fulham 2-2 Liverpool from Craven Cottage.
Liverpool left west London with a familiar feeling, a sense that the numbers told one story while the scoreboard told another. After the draw with Leeds United, another two points slipped away in the Premier League, this time against Marco Silva’s Fulham at Craven Cottage. The season has developed a habit of these moments, afternoons when control and threat fail to translate into certainty.
The contest itself was an odd one. Both sides were disrupted by AFCON absences and injuries, which lent the starting line ups a slightly improvised feel. Liverpool, short of their usual attacking rhythm and missing several established options, still found ways to ask questions. Fulham, depleted and cautious, waited for moments rather than patterns.
From a statistical analysis perspective, Liverpool can consider themselves unfortunate. An expected goals difference of 1.74 should usually be enough to win a match. Cody Gakpo registered two big chances, Curtis Jones another, and only Gakpo’s second effort found the net. The wastefulness is reflected elsewhere too. Despite a makeshift forward structure with Gakpo leading the line, Liverpool produced an average shot quality of 0.20, a strong figure by Premier League standards. Their average shot distance was closer than the season mean of 17.67 metres, yet only two efforts tested the goalkeeper.
There is a particular cruelty in losing points to moments of brilliance late in matches. It happened again here. First Harry Wilson, then Harrison Reed, each delivering finishes that cut against the flow and left Liverpool staring at the turf.
