Statistical Analysis: Liverpool Left With More Questions Than Answers After Nottingham Forest Win

Shot maps, xT rankings and ball recovery data reveal deeper concerns...

There are victories that really highlight a team’s progress, and there are victories that simply deliver relief. Liverpool’s 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest at the City Ground belonged firmly in the latter category. As it did two years ago, the decisive moment arrived in stoppage time, prompting wild celebrations in front of the travelling support and sending Arne Slot’s side home with three precious Premier League points.

Few will care how it came and even fewer will dwell on aesthetics. Yet the performance, particularly in the first half, raised questions that no late goal can entirely silence.

For 45 minutes Liverpool were disjointed. Their pressing lacked cohesion, possession was surrendered cheaply, especially in advanced areas, and the build up was laboured. Duels were lost too easily, second balls rarely fell red, and attacking output was negligible. After a full week of rest, against a Nottingham Forest side that had played in Turkey on Thursday night, the performance was concerning.

Shot Map Context and xG Interpretation

Liverpool’s expected goals figure was bolstered significantly by a dramatic sequence late on, Hugo Ekitike’s header, Virgil van Dijk’s effort, and finally Alexis Mac Allister’s close range finish. That flurry inflated both the overall xG and the average chance quality.

Without that late surge, the picture would have appeared starkly different.