Why Isak Makes More Sense Than Ekitike Right Now

Liverpool need goals and availability, not a project

Alexander Isak: The Safer Option for a Team That Needs to Win Now

After covering Hugo Ekitike yesterday, it’s only right to turn the lens onto Alexander Isak. Both players have been heavily linked with Liverpool, and both show well in the data. But if I had to choose one right now, with Liverpool trying to retain the Premier League title and capitalise on the current momentum, I would go with Isak.

This is not a criticism of Ekitike. As I said on this blog yesterday, he is a good player, but he is also a project. Isak is further along and, crucially, more likely to deliver immediately. When you break it down, it becomes clear why he is the safer option.

Reliable Output Over Raw Potential

Isak offers more certainty, his output across the past three seasons has been consistent, over 20 league goals in the last two seasons. He works in the right half-space and, while he drifts less than Ekitike, that could help create a more balanced dynamic with the players around him.

Isak’s threat value sits at 0.08xT, slightly ahead of Ekitike’s 0.07xT. He is involved enough in buildup to keep the ball moving but is primarily focused on what happens at the business end of the pitch and that is exactly what Liverpool need, given the tweaks Slots seems to want to make to our attacking play. The threat map below, from a recent game shows the area he likes to work in, the RHS and right side of the box, 30% and 12% threat created in those zones respectively. He also showed in this game he can create threat from wider, 48% from the right channel, near where Mo likes to operate.

Playing on that side brings him close to Mo Salah, and that could go either way. It could create space for Isak to exploit, or it might mean both players end up occupying the same zones. The below pass map from a recent game, shows just attacking half passes, with the thicker line indicating more pass connections and the darker the line the more threat created. The map shows how well Isak, number 14 shirt, is connected with players on the right, indicating the potential for link-up play with Mo is definitely there.

One of the key differences is that Isak heads the ball and scores from set plays. That gives Liverpool something extra in both boxes. Hugo, for all his strengths, does not offer that. Set pieces have been a weak point at times, and adding a forward who contributes there can only help. The table below indicating that over the last three seasons, he is on par with goals vs xG with his head, and right foot dominant.

The Off-Ball Work Still Needs Coaching

Neither Isak nor Ekitike are strong off the ball. This has been a consistent theme in the forwards we have looked at since moving away from the Alvarez profile. Interceptions, blocks and pressing numbers are not standout. It is an area where both players will need improvement, and it is something that Slot will need to work on. The off ball zone map below shows, his involvement off ball is so low in a recent game that a zone cannot be drawn from the event data.

That said, it is not a deal breaker, off-ball deficiencies are common in this type of profile. You work around it, you can coach it, as noted yesterday with Ekitiké, slot can improve this he is a coach who has already improved players in that area, and with time, there is no reason Isak cannot follow that path. You manage minutes and roles based on opponent and game state and Isak can become a key item in Liverpool’s attacking Swiss army knife.

Can You Count on His Minutes?

This is the one real issue with Isak, last season, he played around 3,300 minutes in all competitions. For context, Liverpool usually need to find around 5,000 minutes across all competitions in the campaign, from one of the forward positions. That shortfall is not nothing.

To be clear, Isak’s availability has improved over the past three years. His missed games have dropped from 18 to 12 to 9. But 9 games is still 9 games, and if those come at the wrong time, it can make a big difference. You think about a potential run-in game, against Manchester City next season and he does play, you cannot afford to be without your main number nine in those type of games.

The club’s medical staff has done good work with players like Konaté, improving his minutes and availability. So there is hope. But it is unrealistic to expect a player with Isak’s history to suddenly become a 5,000-minute forward overnight or even break 4,000 minutes. Isak’s and Konaté’s availability are very similar for last season, so that gives you an idea of the situation you would have if Isak joined LFC. You can manage it with squad depth, but you need to plan around it, not ignore it.

Worth the Money and the Risk

Isak is going to cost more than Ekitike. The figures being discussed are around £120 million, with wages reported in the region of £220,000 per week, or around £12 million per year. That is nearly double what you would pay for Hugo. But with that cost, you get certainty.

You know what Isak gives you. He has played in the Premier League. There is no league conversion tax, which matters when you're moving from the Bundesliga to England. That 15% reduction we account for with players coming from the Bundesliga, you do not need to worry about it here.

You also get goals, you get aerial threat, you get someone who has scored in this league, against the big teams, in these systems and with Liverpool pushing to win again, that matters.

The Ideal Scenario?

The ideal scenario would be to sign both, use Isak to win now, and develop Ekitike at the same time through a rotation role for those missing 2,000 mins. That solves your availability issues with Isak by spreading the load, and gives Hugo the time he needs to adjust without being thrown straight in.

But realistically, that is probably not feasible, wages, fees and player expectations all come into it. If it comes down to picking one, and you are trying to win this season and next to maximise the last contracts of Mo and Van Dijk, then for me, it has to be Isak. As I said yesterday, Hugo has every chance to become a top forward. He really does, but the difference is, with Isak, you are not waiting to find out.

Isak is not the perfect player, but he is the right one from the current linked players, for where Liverpool are right now. With Mo still delivering, Van Dijk leading from the back, and Alisson behind them, Liverpool have a window to dominate. Isak fits that window better than Hugo does, and should enable the reds to seize the moment.